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PACIFIC NORTHWEST
Metals Market Intelligence
Week of March 3–7, 2026 · Top 10 Takeaways
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POWERED BY
BOB'S METALS
⚡ Echelon AI
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COMEX Cu
$5.763
▼ -0.5%
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LME Al
$1.585
▲ +2.9%
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LME Ni
$7.834
▲ +0.4%
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Turkey HMS
$373
▼ -0.7%
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🔟 TOP 10 TAKEAWAYS — WEEK OF MARCH 3–7
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01
US HRC Hits $1,000/st — 2-Year High
BULLISH
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Platts TSI HRC EXW Indiana hit $1,000/st — the highest level since early 2024. This milestone buoyed steelmaker sentiment and prevented any aggression on March scrap pricing. The HRC-to-Shredded spread remains wide at $598/st, signaling healthy mill margins that protect against scrap price declines near-term. Direct impact: supports floor under PNW ferrous scrap prices.
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02
US/Israel-Iran War Disrupts Global Shipping
GEOPOLITICAL
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The Strait of Hormuz is near-halted, with Jebel Ali (Dubai) transshipment disrupted. US East Coast and European shipments to India are most affected. Bunker fuel costs rising sharply. Freight NJ-to-Turkey hit $32/mt — highest since early December 2025. This is the single biggest variable driving non-ferrous prices up and making US ferrous exports uncompetitive.
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03
Zorba Surges on Both Domestic & Export Fronts
▲ HOT
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US domestic 95/2 zorba rose to $1.04–1.08/lb (+4¢ WoW). CIF India surged to $1.12–1.15/lb (+5¢). CIF China hit $1.16–1.19/lb. Tight domestic supply (winter storm hangover), robust exporter buying, and rising ADC12 in Asia all converging. Shredders report inflows "subdued" — suppliers behind on orders. Action: Strong selling window for mixed aluminum. Move inventory now.
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04
March Ferrous Scrap Settles Flat — April Could Soften
→ CAUTION
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Busheling $445/lt, Shredded $450/lt, HMS $400/lt — all flat from February. But fundamentals are weakening: supply improving as weather normalizes, export markets too expensive for overseas buyers. April outlook is bearish for obsolete grades if demand doesn't pick up. Prime scrap remains better supported by rising pig iron prices.
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05
Freight Costs Skyrocketing — Killing US Export Competitiveness
▲ RISK
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Supramax NJ–Turkey at $32/mt (up from $29.25 last week). Panamax USEC–India at $42/mt (up 9.1% WoW). Meanwhile, Australia–India freight only $22/mt. This $20/mt disadvantage makes US scrap uncompetitive into key Asian markets. War-driven bunker costs and vessel diversions are the culprit. PNW exporters face margin compression on bulk shipments.
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06
Turkey HMS Softening — Mills' Stocks "Really Low"
→ WATCH
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Turkey HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR slipped to $372.50–375/MT. Turkish mills pushed EU prices lower (deals ~$362.50–363.50). But their stocks are critically low and construction season begins in April — they must buy next week. EU origin cargo at $368 avg. Rebar FOB Turkey rose $2.50 to $557.50/mt, signaling mills can afford scrap.
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07
IEEPA Tariff Refund Chaos — $166 Billion at Stake
POLICY
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A federal judge ordered Customs to refund all duties collected under IEEPA country-specific tariffs — an estimated $166 billion. CBP says it cannot comply: 53+ million entries, 330,000+ importers, inadequate technology. Only 21,423 entities have set up electronic refund capability. 339K entries were due to liquidate March 6; 333K more on March 13. Major uncertainty for steel/metals importers — watch for trade flow disruption.
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08
LME Aluminum Surges +2.9% on Middle East Supply Fears
▲ STRONG
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LME Aluminum cash surged to $1.5846/lb (+2.9% WoW) as Middle East primary aluminum production faces disruption. LME cash re-entered backwardation. European alloy and scrap prices also jumped on Gulf shipping disruption. MWTP held at $2.6053/lb. UBC buying spreads at 45.5–46.6% of MWTP. Excellent environment for aluminum scrap sellers.
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09
Copper Scrap Discounts to Asia Narrowing
→ TIGHT
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COMEX Copper at $5.763/lb, LME at $5.814/lb. Seller discounts for Asian consumers narrowed on a lower exchange price combined with persistently tight supply. Nickel 4x4 premiums also rose as buyers returned to spot. 304 stainless processors held flat — supply competition ramping up but availability remains constrained.
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10
US Pig Iron Imports Surge — Approaching 2025 Peak
▲ WATCH
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CIF NOLA at $480/mt (+$10 WoW), nearing 2025 peak of $485. Brazil February exports hit 377,858 mt — up 97.8% YoY, highest February since 2009. 254,711 mt currently en route to US (arriving by March 19). PI:Busheling ratio at 1.08 — mills could start substituting lower-priced prime scrap for pig iron. Bullish signal for prime scrap grades.
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🎯 PNW ACTION ITEMS THIS WEEK
✅ SELL NOW
Zorba / Mixed Al: Best window in months. Domestic +4¢, export +5¢. Tight supply + war premium. Don't wait.
UBC: Spreads at 45.5–46.6% of MWTP with MWTP at $2.60. Solid returns.
Copper Scrap: Tight supply, narrowing discounts. Good market to move material.
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⚠️ HOLD / WATCH
HMS / Obsolete Ferrous: April could soften. Supply improving, exports uncompetitive. Hold if possible.
304 Stainless: Flat and tight. Processors holding firm — no discounts coming, but no upside either.
Bulk Export: Freight economics brutal. $32/mt to Turkey. Margins squeezed.
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💰 BOB'S METALS FOB BUYING PRICES — MAR 8, 2026
| Commodity |
Price/lb |
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Commodity |
Price/lb |
| Bare Bright |
$5.22 |
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Al Sheet |
$0.93 |
| #1 Copper |
$5.12 |
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Al Cast |
$0.94 |
| #2 Copper |
$5.02 |
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Clean Wheels |
$1.14 |
| Yellow Brass |
$2.40 |
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6061 Al |
$2.27 |
| Red Brass |
$3.03 |
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304 Stainless |
$0.53 |
| Al/Cu Radiators |
$2.70 |
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316 Stainless |
$1.03 |
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📅 WATCH THIS WEEK (MAR 10–14)
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→ Turkey mill scrap purchasing — stocks critically low, must buy for April construction season
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→ IEEPA tariff refund developments — CBP 45-day request, 333K entries liquidating March 13
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→ Middle East conflict escalation — any Strait of Hormuz closure would spike non-ferrous further
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→ LME Aluminum momentum — can +2.9% weekly gain sustain? ADC12 supply disruption is structural
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→ US HRC $1,000/st threshold — sustained above = continued scrap floor support
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📊 KEY BENCHMARKS — MAR 8, 2026
| Benchmark |
Price |
WoW |
Source |
| COMEX Copper (May) |
$5.763/lb |
▼ -0.5% |
COMEX |
| LME Copper Cash |
$5.814/lb |
▲ +0.1% |
Argus / LME |
| LME Aluminum Cash |
$1.585/lb |
▲ +2.9% |
Argus / LME |
| MW Transaction Premium |
$2.605/lb |
▼ -0.2% |
Argus / MW |
| LME Nickel Cash |
$7.834/lb |
▲ +0.4% |
Argus / LME |
| Turkey HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR |
$372.50/MT |
▼ -0.7% |
Argus |
| US HRC EXW Indiana |
$1,000/st |
→ 2yr high |
Platts TSI |
| Pig Iron CIF NOLA |
$480/MT |
▲ +$10 |
Platts SBB |
| Iron Ore 62% CFR China |
$102.65/dmt |
▲ +1.3% |
Platts IODEX |
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Bob's Metals, Inc.
9000 N. Interstate Ave., Portland, OR 97217
503.295.3636 · mike@bobsmetals.com
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Published weekly every Monday
Sources: Argus, Platts SBB (S&P Global), Fastmarkets
⚡ Generated by Echelon AI
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